VIXY Vault — the record

Every 15-minute BTC call VIXY has published, graded by Kalshi’s own settlement. No account needed. Losses included.

What one contract earned, after Kalshi’s fee

0.0¢

0.0¢ a contract after fees, paid 80.1¢ on average, over 2320 graded calls — but the 95% interval spans break-even, so this is not yet distinguishable from zero.

Record

1912–448

wins–losses, Kalshi graded

Win rate

81.0%

95% 79.4–82.5%

Avg price paid

80.1¢

per contract, at the lock

Calls priced

2320

of 2360 graded

Window: 2026-10-07 to 2026-11-05, New York days.

40 of 2360 graded calls in this window had no usable price and are left out of the per-contract average. They are still counted in every win, loss and rate on this page.

Every window, together

Published side by side on purpose. Leading with the best of them would be choosing a claim rather than reporting a record.

Window	Graded	Win rate	95% interval	¢/contract	95% interval	Avg paid	Priced
7 days	490	82.4%	78.8–85.6%	-1.2¢ not sig.	-4.5¢ to +1.9¢	82.8¢	490
14 days	1101	79.7%	77.2–81.9%	-1.7¢ not sig.	-4.0¢ to +0.5¢	80.4¢	1096
30 days	2360	81.0%	79.4–82.5%	0.0¢ not sig.	-1.5¢ to +1.6¢	80.1¢	2320

Day by day

A single day is 20–50 graded calls. No day’s per-contract figure carries an interval, because at that size none of them can be told apart from break-even — read the window table above for what the record says, and these rows for what happened.

New York day	Calls	Skips	Wins	Losses	Win rate	¢/contract	Avg paid	Coverage
2026-11-05 (in progress)	2	0	1	0	100.0%	+14.1¢	85.0¢	100.0%
2026-11-04	75	21	66	9	88.0%	-0.8¢	88.1¢	78.1%
2026-11-03	68	28	59	9	86.8%	-1.2¢	87.2¢	70.8%
2026-11-02	75	21	66	9	88.0%	+0.7¢	86.5¢	78.1%
2026-11-01	88	12	71	17	80.7%	-1.9¢	81.6¢	88.0%
2026-10-31	88	8	68	20	77.3%	-3.2¢	79.4¢	91.7%
2026-10-30	95	1	73	22	76.8%	-1.1¢	76.8¢	99.0%
2026-10-29	86	10	68	18	79.1%	-0.1¢	78.1¢	89.6%
2026-10-28	91	5	70	21	76.9%	-2.6¢	78.5¢	94.8%
2026-10-27	93	3	72	21	77.4%	-2.9¢	79.3¢	96.9%
2026-10-26	89	7	69	20	77.5%	-2.8¢	79.3¢	92.7%
2026-10-25	91	5	71	20	78.0%	-2.1¢	79.1¢	94.8%
2026-10-24	72	24	57	15	79.2%	-0.9¢	78.3¢	75.0%
2026-10-23	89	7	66	23	74.2%	-2.8¢	76.0¢	92.7%
2026-10-22	85	11	69	16	81.2%	-0.8¢	81.4¢	88.5%
2026-10-21	88	8	72	16	81.8%	+4.5¢	76.2¢	91.7%
2026-10-20	92	4	72	20	78.3%	-4.0¢	80.6¢	95.8%
2026-10-19	94	2	73	21	77.7%	-2.7¢	81.2¢	97.9%
2026-10-18	80	16	71	9	88.8%	+10.8¢	79.2¢	83.3%
2026-10-17	70	26	59	11	84.3%	+0.5¢	81.6¢	72.9%
2026-10-16	92	4	76	16	82.6%	+2.4¢	78.3¢	95.8%
2026-10-15	86	10	70	16	81.4%	+1.2¢	78.9¢	89.6%
2026-10-14	91	5	67	24	73.6%	-7.1¢	79.0¢	94.8%
2026-10-13	89	7	78	11	87.6%	+7.1¢	80.4¢	92.7%
2026-10-12	94	2	80	14	85.1%	+4.2¢	80.6¢	97.9%
2026-10-11	69	27	60	9	87.0%	+5.3¢	80.6¢	71.9%
2026-10-10	21	75	19	2	90.5%	+5.3¢	84.4¢	21.9%
2026-10-09	59	37	48	11	81.4%	-1.9¢	82.4¢	61.5%
2026-10-08	73	23	60	13	82.2%	+3.4¢	77.7¢	76.0%
2026-10-07	76	20	61	15	80.3%	+0.1¢	79.2¢	79.2%

How a call is graded

A lock counts as a win or a loss only once Kalshi's official KXBTC15M result has graded it. Ungraded locks are not losses. Only cycles that have ended are counted.

Kalshi-graded locks only, one contract each, bought at the Kalshi price recorded for the side at the second it locked (else the close of Kalshi’s last 1-minute candle ending at or before the lock, at most 120 s before it). A lock with neither price is counted as unpriced and left out of the average.

Kalshi’s fee: 0.07 x P x (1 - P) per contract, unrounded.

What this page does not show

Which way VIXY called any cycle, its strike, or its Kalshi ticker. That is the paid signal.
What any single cycle cost. Kalshi’s historical book is public, so a per-cycle price would identify the side even though nothing named it. Only averages over a day or a window are published here.
Any model probability, and no breakdown by entry price or hour.

Members get all of it, per cycle, with the proof recorded at the second of each lock.