How does a 15-minute Bitcoin up or down round settle?
It compares two averages of one Bitcoin index: the 60 seconds before the close against the 60 seconds before the open. If the closing average is at least the opening average, UP wins. Otherwise DOWN wins.
The rule, step by step
That is our summary of the rule printed on the market, read on 2026-11-04. Rules can change, so read the one on the market itself before you trade.
- Kalshi's 15-minute Bitcoin market runs on the quarter hour: :00, :15, :30 and :45.
- The target, often called the strike, is the average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin index (BRTI) over the 60 seconds before the round opens. So it does not exist until the round starts.
- The final value is the average of the same index over the 60 seconds before the round closes, rounded to two decimal places.
- If the final value is at least the strike, the round resolves Yes, which is UP. A tie counts as UP.
- A contract you still hold at the close pays $1 if your side won and nothing if it lost. You can also sell before the close, at whatever the market will pay, and a trading fee applies.
Why the price on your screen can disagree
No single exchange settles the round. The rule uses an index, and it uses an average, so the last trade you saw on any one exchange is not the final value.
VIXY's live price comes from Coinbase trades, which is not the settlement index. When a round closes very near the strike, our screen can show one side and the official result can go the other way. Near the strike, trust the official result and not the last price.
A late move has less effect than it looks, because each of the last 60 seconds is only a small part of the average. That cuts both ways: a spike in the final seconds may not be enough to change the result.
How VIXY records the result
VIXY grades a call only on the market's official result, never on its own price. A call whose result has not arrived is shown as waiting, not as a loss, and a round with no call is a SKIP, which counts as neither. The results are on the public record.
Last reviewed 2026-11-04.